|
Page 1 of 4 presentation In Delhi By Mr Jan B Steffens, CEO, Rickmers Line
The future of the multipurpose fleet.
Whilst everybody is aware of the accelerating growth of the container fleet and the bullish bulker and tanker market it seems to be an exception to put an eye on the break bulk and multipurpose fleet.
Indeed, only five years ago nobody saw neither a future for this sector of the shipping industry nor a need to pay special attention to it.
And this is no surprise because the relevance of the conventional general cargo fleet has been dramatically eroded by the containerisation and the specialisation of dry cargo ships in the last five decades:
Slide I
- In the mid 50ies, just at the outset of the container revolution, the multi-deck vessel with own cargo handling gear was the dominant design
- Out of 90 million dwt 86 million or 96% fell in this category
Slide II
- Fifty years later, in 2005 the total fleet stood at 525 million dwt but the portion of the conventional fleet collapsed to 35 million dwt or 7% only.
Nowadays, bulk carriers and container vessels undoubtedly dominate the dry cargo fleet. And the containerisation of break bulk and other general cargo is still in progress. At present, about 60% is shipped in containers and by 2010 this may reach 70%. In the world’s leading ports containerisation already climbed to 90%.
So, given these fundamental conditions and trends what is the outlook for break bulk or non containerised cargo in general and for the multipurpose fleet in particular?
First of all, we can state that in 2004 the decline of multipurpose tonnage grinded to a halt. A sudden upswing of demand snatched at the leftover conventional fleet.
Massive investments worldwide in the oil and gas industry, in the petrochemical industry, in infrastructure and power supply - especially renewable energy projects – have accelerated the need for transportation of break bulk, heavy lift and project cargo which to a great degree still does not fit into containers.
In particular, the Middle East region invests hundreds of billions of dollars into petrochemical plants, natural gas liquefaction and tourism projects which require the shipment of millions of tons of break bulk cargo over the next years.
The globalisation of trade and manufacturing and especially the economic development in China, the stunning growth in India, Russia, and Brazil but also in Vietnam and some African countries are the main driving factors behind this development.
According to Dynamar the volumes for break bulk will increase from 550 million tons in 2005 to 620 million tons in 2010. But this figure might well be on the low side.
The segment of break bulk, heavy lift and project cargo is on an upswing and the demand for transportation on multipurpose ships has experienced unparalleled growth. I am positive that this will continue throughout the years to come.
Hence, it is no surprise that after decades of downgrading confidence has returned to owners and operators of multipurpose vessels and induced many orders for new buildings.
|
